The Global Market

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 18 1.1 Report scope and definitions 18 1.2 The CCU-derived carbon materials thesis: triple revenue convergence 18 1.2.1 Material revenue 19 1.2.2 Co-product revenue (H₂, O₂, syngas) 19 1.2.3 Carbon credit and abatement revenue 20 1.3 Total CCU-derived carbon materials market 2024–2036 20 1.4 Market by material output, region, and production route 21 1.5 Net-negative carbon claim quantification 23 1.6 Consolidated pricing comparison (CCU-derived vs conventional) 23 1.7 Key market drivers and headwinds 24 1.8 Top 20 commercial and pre-commercial players 25 1.9 Strategic outlook to 2036 26 2 INTRODUCTION AND METHDOLOGY 27 2.1 What counts as a "CCU-derived carbon material" 27 2.2 Boundaries: relationship to CCS, CCUS, CDR, and conventional carbon materials 28 2.3 Inclusion of methane pyrolysis: scope rationale 29 2.4 Carbon accounting boundaries used in this report 30 2.5 Forecast methodology and base/bull/bear assumptions 31 2.6 Glossary and abbreviations 32 3 POLICY, INCENTIVES AND CARBON MARKET CONTEXT 34 3.1 Overview: policy as the third revenue stream 34 3.2 United States 35 3.2.1 IRA Section 45Q — utilisation tier ($60/tonne CO₂) 35 3.2.2 IRA Section 45V — Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit 36 3.2.3 DOE Loan Programs Office and ARPA-E support 37 3.2.4 State-level incentives (California LCFS, Texas, Louisiana) 37 3.3 European Union 37 3.3.1 EU Innovation Fund 37 3.3.2 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) 38 3.3.3 EU ETS interaction with CCU products 38 3.3.4 Industrial Carbon Management Strategy 39 3.4 United Kingdom 39 3.4.1 CCUS cluster funding (Track 1 and Track 2) 39 3.4.2 Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy 40 3.5 Canada 40 3.5.1 Federal Investment Tax Credit for CCUS 41 3.5.2 Provincial programmes (Alberta TIER, Emissions Reduction Alberta) 41 3.6 Asia-Pacific 42 3.6.1 China — national CCUS roadmap and pilot projects 42 3.6.2 Japan — Green Innovation Fund 43 3.6.3 South Korea — K-CCUS roadmap 43 3.6.4 Australia — Future Industries Programme 44 3.7 Middle East 45 3.7.1 UAE and Saudi Arabia CCUS strategy 45 3.8 Voluntary carbon market integration 45 3.8.1 Verra VCS and CCU methodologies 45 3.8.2 Puro.earth durable CDR standards 45 3.8.3 Isometric and high-durability classifications 46 3.8.4 Gold Standard 47 3.9 Durability classifications and permanence 48 3.9.1 Short-, medium-, and long-duration carbon storage 48 3.9.2 Durability requirements by buyer 48 3.10 LCA and carbon accounting frameworks 49 3.10.1 ISO 14067 product carbon footprint 49 3.10.2 GHG Protocol Product Standard 50 3.10.3 Embodied carbon in construction (EN 15804, EPDs) 50 3.10.4 Cradle-to-gate vs cradle-to-grave debates 51 3.11 Policy outlook and risk scenarios to 2036 52 4 CCUS INFRATRUCTURE AS A FEEDSTOCK BASE 53 4.1 Global operational capture capacity 53 4.2 Project pipeline 54 4.3 CO₂ source breakdown 55 4.3.1 Power generation point sources 56 4.3.2 Cement and steel 56 4.3.3 Hydrogen, ammonia, and ethanol 56 4.3.4 Direct air capture (DAC) 56 4.3.5 Biogenic sources (BECCS, biogas) 56 4.4 CO₂ purity and partial pressure requirements by conversion route 58 4.5 CO₂ pricing landscape 59 4.6 CO₂ transport and offtake infrastructure 60 4.7 Geographic concentration of feedstock supply 61 4.8 Feedstock-to-material capacity mapping 62 5 PRODUCTION ROUTES — TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC PROFILES 64 5.1 Comparative overview of routes 64 5.1.1 Routes summary 64 5.1.2 Capex/opex benchmarks across routes 64 5.2 Molten salt electrolysis 67 5.2.1 Process description and chemistry 67 5.2.2 Cathode/anode materials and morphology control 68 5.2.3 Energy consumption (10–15 kWh/kg CNT) 69 5.2.4 CO₂ feedstock requirements (~4 t CO₂ per t CNT) 70 5.2.5 Output morphologies: CNTs, carbon nano-onions, graphitic platelets 70 5.2.6 O₂ co-product valorisation 70 5.2.7 Capex/opex benchmarks at pilot and commercial scale 70 5.2.8 Scaling challenges and roadmap 71 5.2.9 Leading developers 71 5.3 Plasma pyrolysis 72 5.3.1 Process description (3,000–10,000°C plasma) 72 5.3.2 Methane vs CO₂/CH₄ blended feedstock 73 5.3.3 Hydrogen co-product economics and 45V interaction 74 5.3.4 Output materials: carbon black analogues, graphitic carbon, CNT-like structures 74 5.3.5 Energy intensity and renewable power dependency 75 5.3.6 Capex/opex benchmarks 76 5.3.7 Leading developers 76 5.4 Electrochemical CO₂ reduction 78 5.4.1 Aqueous and gas-phase electrochemistry 78 5.4.2 C1 and C2+ product slates (relevance to graphene precursors) 79 5.4.3 Catalyst landscape 79 5.4.4 Solid carbon vs liquid product trade-offs 80 5.4.5 Leading developers 80 5.5 Catalytic and thermochemical conversion 80 5.5.1 Reverse water-gas shift + Boudouard pathway 80 5.5.2 Catalyst engineering and morphology control 81 5.5.3 Hydrogen integration 82 5.5.4 Pilot and demonstration status 82 5.5.5 Leading developers 82 5.6 Mineralisation and carbonate-bound carbon 82 5.6.1 Aqueous and direct mineralisation chemistries 82 5.6.2 Aggregate, SCM, and filler products 84 5.6.3 Carbonate-bound CO₂ permanence and credit treatment 84 5.6.4 Leading developers 85 5.7 Photocatalytic and emerging routes 86 5.7.1 Solar-driven CO₂ reduction 86 5.7.2 Bioelectrochemical and microbial routes 87 5.7.3 Concentrated solar carbothermal 87 5.8 Cross-cutting techno-economic comparison 87 5.8.1 Cost per kg by route at pilot vs commercial scale 87 5.8.2 Sensitivity to electricity price, CO₂ cost, and policy stack 89 5.8.3 Break-even analysis under 45Q, EU ETS, and voluntary credit scenarios 89 5.8.4 Energy intensity and embodied emissions 90 6 OUTPUT MATERIALS — BY MATERIAL TYPE 93 6.1 CNTs from CO₂ 93 6.1.1 MWCNT vs SWCNT routes 93 6.1.2 Battery-grade qualification status 93 6.1.3 Pricing vs Chinese MWCNT incumbents 94 6.1.4 Production cost forecast 2026–2036 95 6.1.5 Addressable applications 95 6.2 Carbon black from CO₂ and CH₄ 96 6.2.1 Plasma-derived carbon black analogues 96 6.2.2 ASTM grade equivalence and reinforcement performance 96 6.2.3 Tyre and rubber qualification timelines 97 6.2.4 Conductive carbon black applications 97 6.3 Graphene and graphitic carbon 98 6.3.1 Graphene oxide via CO₂-mineralisation routes 98 6.3.2 Graphene quantum dots and nanoplatelets 98 6.3.3 Quality vs CVD and exfoliation routes 98 6.4 Carbon fibres from CO₂ 99 6.4.1 CO₂-derived precursor pathways 99 6.4.2 Mars Materials acrylonitrile route 99 6.4.3 Aerospace and industrial qualification challenges 100 6.5 Synthetic graphite from CO₂ and CH₄ 100 6.5.1 Battery anode-grade specifications 100 6.5.2 Hazer Group methane pyrolysis route 101 6.5.3 Competitive position vs Chinese natural and synthetic graphite 101 6.6 Carbonate-bound aggregates and SCMs 102 6.6.1 Coarse and fine aggregate products 102 6.6.2 SCMs displacing Portland cement clinker 102 6.6.3 Embodied carbon performance 103 6.7 Carbon nano-onions and other novel morphologies 104 6.8 Material quality and qualification matrix 104 6.8.1 Impurity profiles by route 104 6.8.2 Batch-to-batch consistency at pilot vs commercial scale 105 6.8.3 Sector-specific qualification timelines (battery, aerospace, automotive, construction, medical) 105 7 DEMAND-SIDE ANALYSIS 107 7.1 Battery and energy storage 107 7.1.1 Conductive additive demand (MWCNT, carbon black) 107 7.1.2 Anode materials (synthetic graphite) 108 7.1.3 OEM qualification programmes 108 7.1.4 Low-CI material premiums in EV supply chains 109 7.2 Tyre and rubber 110 7.2.1 Tyre OEM commitments to circular and low-CI carbon black 110 7.2.2 Michelin, Goodyear, Bridgestone, Continental sustainability roadmaps 110 7.2.3 Volume opportunity and substitution rate 111 7.3 Polymers and composites 112 7.3.1 Masterbatch and compounding integration 112 7.3.2 Packaging and consumer goods 112 7.4 Construction and concrete 113 7.4.1 Cement and concrete admixtures 113 7.4.2 Aggregate and SCM demand 113 7.4.3 Embodied carbon-driven procurement (LEED, Buy Clean) 113 7.5 Aerospace and defence 114 7.6 Electronics and thermal management 114 7.7 Offtake agreements signed to date 114 7.7.1 Tracker of disclosed offtakes and LOIs 114 7.8 Corporate procurement commitments 116 7.8.1 Frontier coalition 116 7.8.2 Stripe Climate 116 7.8.3 Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon 116 7.8.4 Watershed and Patch buyer pools 116 7.9 Procurement decision criteria for low-CI carbon materials 117 7.10 Demand sizing 2026–2036 by application 118 8 PROJECT PIPELINE AND CAPACITY TRACKER 120 8.1 Methodology: project status definitions 120 8.2 Operating facilities (commercial and demonstration) 120 8.2.1 Capacity, route, output material, location, operator 120 8.3 Under construction 123 8.4 Final investment decision (FID) taken 124 8.5 Announced and pre-FID 126 8.6 Aggregate capacity by route (tpa) 126 8.7 Aggregate capacity by region 127 8.8 Aggregate capacity by output material 128 8.9 Capacity build-out forecast 2026–2036 128 8.10 Project economics archetypes (cement-integrated, power-integrated, DAC-integrated) 130 9 FORECASTS TO 2036 132 9.1 Forecast methodology and scenario design 132 9.2 Base case: market size by year, route, material, region (2024–2036) 133 9.3 Bull case: assumptions and upside drivers 134 9.4 Bear case: assumptions and downside risks 135 9.5 Forecasts by material 136 9.5.1 CNTs from CO₂ 137 9.5.2 Carbon black from CO₂/CH₄ 137 9.5.3 Graphene and graphitic carbon 138 9.5.4 Carbon fibres from CO₂ 139 9.5.5 Synthetic graphite from CO₂/CH₄ 139 9.5.6 Carbonate-bound aggregates and SCMs 140 9.6 Forecasts by route 141 9.7 Forecasts by region 142 9.8 Capacity vs demand balance 143 9.9 Pricing trajectory forecasts 144 9.10 Carbon credit revenue contribution forecast 145 9.11 Tipping points and inflection scenarios 146 10 COMPANY PROFILES 147 (53 company profiles) 11 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 207 11.1 Scope and definitions 207 11.2 Data sources 207 11.3 Forecast model construction 208 11.4 Assumptions and limitations 209 11.5 Currency, units, and conventions 210 11.6 Confidence intervals and forecast risk 210 12 REFERENCES 211

List of Tables Table 1. Total CCU-derived carbon materials market revenue, 2024–2036 ($M) 21 Table 2. Market revenue by output material, 2026 / 2030 / 2036 ($M, base case) 21 Table 3. Market revenue by region, 2026 / 2030 / 2036 ($M, base case) 22 Table 4. Market revenue by production route, 2026 / 2030 / 2036 ($M, base case) 22 Table 5. Carbon sequestered per tonne of material output by route 23 Table 6. Price benchmark: CCU-derived vs conventional by material (2025, 2030, 2036) 23 Table 7. Top 20 players: route, capacity, status, funding to date 25 Table 8. Scenario assumptions: electricity price, CO₂ cost, carbon credit price, policy stack 32 Table 9. Comparative policy stack summary across major jurisdictions 35 Table 10. Section 45Q rates by storage type and project start date 36 Table 11. Section 45V tiers by lifecycle CI 36 Table 12. DOE awards to CCU-derived carbon material developers, 2020–2026 37 Table 13. Innovation Fund awards relevant to CCU-derived carbon materials 37 Table 14. Asia-Pacific CCU policy summary 44 Table 15. Voluntary carbon market standards: durability, verification, fee structure 47 Table 16. Durability requirements and price tiers by major corporate buyer 48 Table 17. Operating CCUS facilities by region and capture capacity 53 Table 18. CCUS project pipeline by stage (early, advanced, FID, construction) 54 Table 19. Captured CO₂ supply by source type, current and forecast 57 Table 20. CO₂ specification requirements by conversion technology 58 Table 21. CO₂ delivered cost by source and region (2025, USD per tonne) 59 Table 22. Co-located opportunities: industrial CO₂ source vs nearest CCU-material project 62 Table 23. Production routes summary: TRL, energy intensity, CO₂ requirement, yield, co-products 64 Table 24. Capex and opex benchmarks across routes at pilot and commercial scale 65 Table 25. Cathode material vs output morphology and product grade 69 Table 26. Molten salt electrolysis TEA: pilot vs projected commercial cost build-up 70 Table 27. Molten salt electrolysis developers comparison 71 Table 28. Hydrogen co-product revenue under 45V tiers 74 Table 29. Plasma pyrolysis TEA at commercial scale 76 Table 30. Plasma/methane pyrolysis developers comparison 76 Table 31. Product selectivity by catalyst class 79 Table 32. Mineralisation product slate, CO₂ uptake per tonne, and durability classification 84 Table 33. Mineralisation developers comparison 85 Table 34. Production cost per kg by route, pilot and commercial scale 87 Table 35. Break-even production cost under three policy scenarios 90 Table 36. CCU-derived CNT spec comparison vs Chinese MWCNT incumbents 93 Table 37. CCU-derived CNT production cost trajectory 95 Table 38. Plasma-derived carbon black vs ASTM N-series specifications 96 Table 39. CCU-derived carbon black price and capacity 2025–2036 97 Table 40. Graphene from CO₂: spec, defect density, layer count vs conventional routes 98 Table 41. Anode-grade synthetic graphite specifications 100 Table 42. SCM and aggregate performance: CO₂ uptake, strength, durability 103 Table 43. Impurity matrix by production route and output material 104 Table 44. Qualification timeline matrix: material × end-use sector 105 Table 45. Battery conductive additive demand 2026–2036 107 Table 46. Battery and EV OEM qualification programmes for CCU-derived materials 108 Table 47. Tyre OEM low-CI carbon black commitments and target dates 110 Table 48. Construction sector demand for CCU-derived carbonate-bound products 113 Table 49. Disclosed offtake agreements and LOIs 2020–2026 (buyer, seller, volume, term, status) 114 Table 50. Corporate carbon procurement commitments by buyer, durability, dollars committed 116 Table 51. Total addressable demand by sector, 2026 / 2030 / 2036 118 Table 52. Operating CCU-derived carbon material facilities (2025) 120 Table 53. Under-construction projects, expected commissioning date 123 Table 54. FID-taken projects 2024–2026 124 Table 55. Announced and pre-FID projects, indicative timeline 126 Table 56. Capacity build-out forecast (tpa) by route, region, material 129 Table 57. Project archetype economics comparison 130 Table 58. Scenario assumptions and key drivers 132 Table 59. Base case forecast — global market revenue 2024–2036 133 Table 60. Bull case forecast 134 Table 61. Bear case forecast — global market revenue 2024–2036 ($M) 135 Table 62. CNTs from CO₂: revenue and volume forecast 137 Table 63. Carbon black from CO₂/CH₄: revenue and volume forecast 137 Table 64. Graphene and graphitic carbon: revenue and volume forecast 138 Table 65. Carbon fibres from CO₂: revenue and volume forecast 139 Table 66. Synthetic graphite from CO₂/CH₄: revenue and volume forecast 139 Table 67. Carbonate-bound aggregates and SCMs: revenue and volume forecast (base case) 140 Table 68. Revenue forecast by production route 141 Table 69. Revenue forecast by region (base case, $M) 142 Table 70. Pricing trajectory forecasts by material (base case, $/kg or $/t) 144 Table 71. Carbon credit and policy revenue as % of total revenue, by route 145 Table 72. Master company comparison: route, capacity, funding, TRL, key markets 147 List of Figures Figure 1. Market size 2024–2036, base/bull/bear 19 Figure 2. Triple revenue convergence schematic 20 Figure 3. Scope diagram: CCU vs CCS vs CCUS vs CDR 28 Figure 4. System boundary diagram for LCA 31 Figure 5. Policy revenue contribution waterfall by jurisdiction 34 Figure 6. EU ETS price evolution 2020–2026 and forward curves 38 Figure 7. UK CCUS cluster geography 40 Figure 8. Carbon credit price ranges by standard and durability tier (2025) 47 Figure 9. Policy stack value to 2036 under three scenarios 52 Figure 10. Global CCUS capacity map (operational and announced) 54 Figure 11. CCUS capacity build-out 2020–2036 with project status overlay 55 Figure 12. CO₂ source mix evolution 2025 → 2036 57 Figure 13. CO₂ cost evolution 2020–2036, point-source vs DAC 60 Figure 14. Major CO₂ transport infrastructure (US Gulf, EU North Sea, UK clusters) 61 Figure 15. TRL vs commercial maturity matrix by route 67 Figure 16. Molten salt electrolysis process schematic 68 Figure 17. Plasma pyrolysis process schematic 73 Figure 18. Plasma pyrolysis carbon intensity vs grid emissions factor 75 Figure 19. Electrochemical CO₂ reduction process schematic 78 Figure 20. RWGS + Boudouard process flow 81 Figure 21. Mineralisation pathway diagram 83 Figure 22. Cost-curve comparison: CCU-derived vs conventional benchmarks 88 Figure 23. Tornado chart — TEA sensitivity by input variable 89 Figure 24. Embodied emissions of output material by route and electricity source 91 Figure 25. CO₂-to-acrylonitrile-to-carbon-fibre pathway 99 Figure 26. Synthetic graphite supply: China dominance vs CCU-derived alternatives 102 Figure 27. Premium pricing for low-CI battery materials 110 Figure 28. CCU-derived carbon black share of total tyre demand 2026–2036 112 Figure 29. Demand share by sector evolution 119 Figure 30. Aggregate capacity by route, 2025 vs 2030 vs 2036 127 Figure 31. Project pipeline geography map 128 Figure 32. Cumulative capacity vs cumulative demand, 2026–2036 130 Figure 33. Base case market trajectory 134 Figure 34. Three-scenario fan chart 2024–2036 136 Figure 35. Route share evolution 2024–2036 142 Figure 36. Regional growth rates 143 Figure 37. Capacity vs demand balance by material 144 Figure 38. Inflection scenario timeline 146 Figure 39. PCCSD Project in China. 171 Figure 40. Orca facility. 172 Figure 41. OCOchem’s Carbon Flux Electrolyzer. 194